Bush is currently leading in Ohio by 136,221
If there are 250,000 provisional ballots outstanding. The highest number I've seen.
And 90% of those ballots are good, as they were in 2000. That leaves 225,000 votes.
If 85% of those ballots prove to be for Kerry, about the number that Gore got in 2000. That leaves us with 191,250, giving us a lead of 55,029.
If there are only 200,000 provisionals, following the same calculation would leave us with a lead of 16,779.
If the provisional ballots are only 175,000 that leaves us with a deficit of -2,346 that will leaves us in a position to get an automatic statewide recount.
Or, to put it another way, an automatic recount is triggered by a margin of 0.25% or between 13,000 and 16,000 votes.
If there are 250,000 provisional ballots outstanding. The highest number I've seen.
And 90% of those ballots are good, as they were in 2000. That leaves 225,000 votes.
If 85% of those ballots prove to be for Kerry, about the number that Gore got in 2000. That leaves us with 191,250, giving us a lead of 55,029.
If there are only 200,000 provisionals, following the same calculation would leave us with a lead of 16,779.
If the provisional ballots are only 175,000 that leaves us with a deficit of -2,346 that will leaves us in a position to get an automatic statewide recount.
Or, to put it another way, an automatic recount is triggered by a margin of 0.25% or between 13,000 and 16,000 votes.
either this will come down to counting the votes (what a novel concept!) or it will be decided by the courts once again.
