maybe i've drunk the kool-aid & am not being as cynical as usual, but i do believe (as i have for awhile) that more likely than not, kerry will win the election. & i'm not sure it'll even be close.

forget about the national polls. even if there weren't countless signs of problems with them, the fact is that national polls don't mean shit. if they did, gore would be in office now. besides, the media isn't reporting them right anyway (even a 1-point lead for bush is reported as a lead, but when kerry has a lead it's reported as a "dead heat").

what actually matters is the electoral college, where kerry is kicking ass. indeed, in all the ways that actually matter, kerry is ahead or at least gaining ground.

kerry won all three debates. kerry is up or leading in all the swing states. newspapers that endorsed bush in 2000 & even big-name republicans are endorsing kerry. new democrat voter registrations far outnumber republican registrations.

bush, in contrast, is stuck at or below the 48% barrier in countless polls, which is almost certain doom for an incumbent. the bush campaign has nothing to go on but non-stories like kerry mentioning that mary cheney is a lesbian in the third debate (hello, this was already public knowledge. the republican "outrage" over this merely suggests that they are still uncomfortable with homosexuality in general) or that theresa kerry didn't know that laura bush used to be a schoolteacher (who cares is laura bush ever had a "real job"? hell, she doesn't have one now: she's the first lady, which means her job is to smile, stand by the prez [yes, hillary-haters, even if he cheats on you], & act feminine). bush has a rabidly devoted base but the majority of americans don't like or trust him, so the bush agenda has been to make people dislike kerry too. that was working for awhile, but it's not anymore.

so i'm convinced. barring disaster, kerry will win. i don't think nader will even be a factor this year: if any third-party candidate has a significant impact on the election it will be badnarik (libertarian). the left is almost completely united under kerry, but i know a few conservatives who are voting libertarian because they hate bush but can't bring themselves to vote for a democrat. but for some reason no pollsters ever include badnarik, yet they often include nader (who is only on the ballot in like 20 states, whereas i believe badnarik will be there in all 50).

so for me right now the real question is not will kerry win, but by how much? the conventional wisdom is that the race will be very close, like 2000. but i'm not convinced. because of factors such as the overwhelming advantage the democrats have in new registrations, i suspect that kerry will win by a much larger margin than the polls actually suggest. maybe it won't be a landslide, but i have a feeling it might be a fairly decisive victory. what i would love is for some of the "solid red" states to flip for kerry: specifically indiana. maybe that's a pipe dream, but a man can dream, right? i would cream my jeans if it happened.

naturally bushco will try everything possible to hold on to power, including voter disenfranchisement, legal battles, the whole shebang. but if i'm right that kerry will have a decisive win, the bushco effort to cockblock the vote will not be enough. it won't matter. even after they turn people away at the polls & try to discredit democratic ballots, kerry will still have enough to win.

obviously i'm rooting for kerry here, & i've joined operation momentum to get out the word that not only can kerry win, but he will if kerry-supporters & bush-haters stay motivated & actually vote. you might think i'm deluding myself. if i turn out to be wrong, you have every right to rub it in my face (if you have the stomach; i can't imagine anyone who'd read this blog actually being glad if bush wins). but the fact is that things are looking great for kerry, & bush is going to need a minor miracle at this point to turn the momentum around.